269 Hook Rise South, Surbiton, Surrey KT6 7LT
This is a decision-grade auction deal analysis for 269 Hook Rise South, South Surbiton, Surrey, KT6 7LT, a three-bedroom semi-detached house being offered via Savills Auctions. The analysis focuses on three investor angles (Flip, Buy-to-Let, BRRR) using evidence available, the nearby sold and listed comparables you supplied, and an auction-style finance stack (bridging at 0.9% per month). If you are underwriting a refurbishment, resale, or refinance exit in Surbiton and the wider Kingston and Tolworth area, this report highlights what you can pay, what you can make, and where the risk can wipe out the margin.
The auction starting bid price is £275,000 (check auction whebsite for any change in starting / guide price). The lot is described as requiring modernisation with scope to extend (subject to consents), which makes it a classic value-add flip or BRRR candidate, but only if your refurb scope, timeline, and legal pack constraints hold.
| Property quick facts |
Cost warning: Auction guide/starting prices typically exclude buyer/admin fees and any seller special-condition charges. Always confirm all payable sums in the auction pack and special conditions before bidding.
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Property description
Planning permission and permitted development rules for this property fall under the local authority. Buyers should review the relevant planning guidance on the
local council planning portal
before relying on any extension, change of use, or development assumptions.
Market reference points (evidence available)
| Sold comparables (last 1 years, within 0.25 mile radius) | Sold price | Sold date |
|---|---|---|
| 287 Hook Rise South, Surbiton, KT6 7LT | £475,000 | June 2025 |
| 98 Fullers Way South, Chessington, KT9 1HF | £450,000 | August 2025 |
| 32 Cedarcroft Road, Chessington, KT9 1RP | £640,000 | June 2025 |
| 13 Beechcroft Road, Chessington, KT9 1RL | £527,000 | January 2015 |
| Nearby listings (within 0.25 mile radius) | Asking | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Fullers Way South, Chessington, KT9 | £525,000 | Sold STC |
| Ashcroft Road, Chessington, Surrey, KT9 | £500,000 | Sold STC |
| Hook Rise South, Surbiton | £500,000 | Sold STC |
Costs and assumptions used (caps are decision-grade)
| Assumption | Value used | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Bridging interest | 0.9% per month, interest-only | Directly impacts profit as timelines extend. |
| Bridging LTV | 70% of purchase price | Sets loan size and interest burn. |
| Bridging fees (model) | 2% arrangement, 1% exit, 0.5% broker, plus valuation and lender legal allowances | Non-trivial drag on net profit, especially at shorter holds. |
| Buyer admin fee (Savills) | £2,100 incl VAT (purchases at or above £30,000) | Payable in addition to price. Confirm latest terms before bidding. |
| Deposit | 10% on the day (auction standard) | Liquidity requirement and execution risk if funds are not ready. |
| SDLT basis (model) | Additional property assumption (investor surcharge applied) | Can swing profitability. Adjust if not an additional property purchase. |
| Refurb stress tests | Minimum £40k, Medium £60k, Maximum £90k (all-in) | Modernisation scope risk is the main profit variable. |
| Selling costs (flip) | Estate agent 1.8% of sale price (incl VAT) + £1,500 legals + £500 marketing allowance | Often under-budgeted on flips. |
| Holding costs | £400 per month allowance | Utilities, insurance, council tax (if vacant), security, misc. |
Article 4 area check (town level)
GDV scenarios (A, B, C)
| Scenario | GDV (sale price) | Evidence anchor |
|---|---|---|
| A: Min GDV | £450,000 | Anchored to the £450,000 sold comparable in your list. |
| B: Mid GDV | £500,000 | Anchored to the Sold STC cluster around £500,000. |
| C: Max GDV | £550,000 | Upside case assuming stronger finish and demand, still below the £640,000 outlier you listed. |
FULL MATRIX: Net flip profit (£) (viewer friendly)
| GDV | Refurb | 6 months | 9 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £450,000 (Min) | £40k | £89,068 | £82,670 | £76,272 |
| £60k | £69,068 | £62,670 | £56,272 | |
| £90k | £39,068 | £32,670 | £26,272 | |
| £500,000 (Mid) | £40k | £139,068 | £132,670 | £126,272 |
| £60k | £119,068 | £112,670 | £106,272 | |
| £90k | £89,068 | £82,670 | £76,272 | |
| £550,000 (Max) | £40k | £189,068 | £182,670 | £176,272 |
| £60k | £169,068 | £162,670 | £156,272 | |
| £90k | £139,068 | £132,670 | £126,272 |
It still shows what profit can be made even where the profit does not hit the £80k target.
Maximum bid analysis (target: minimum £80k net flip profit)
| GDV scenario | Refurb stress | 6 months max bid | 9 months max bid | 12 months max bid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: £450,000 | £40k (Minimum) | £282,938 | £277,299 | £271,650 |
| £60k (Medium) | £265,429 | £260,076 | £254,716 | |
| £90k (Maximum) | £238,671 | £233,651 | £228,618 | |
| B: £500,000 | £40k (Minimum) | £325,921 | £319,583 | £313,448 |
| £60k (Medium) | £308,413 | £302,360 | £296,500 | |
| £90k (Maximum) | £282,150 | £276,524 | £271,079 | |
| C: £550,000 | £40k (Minimum) | £368,905 | £361,867 | £355,055 |
| £60k (Medium) | £351,396 | £344,643 | £338,107 | |
| £90k (Maximum) | £325,134 | £318,808 | £312,685 |
These are the clean “one number” caps per GDV scenario using Medium refurb (£60k) and a 9 month exit:
- Scenario A (GDV £450k): Max bid to still clear £80k profit = £260,076
- Scenario B (GDV £500k): Max bid to still clear £80k profit = £302,360
- Scenario C (GDV £550k): Max bid to still clear £80k profit = £344,643
- Hard stop cap (profit rule): £260,076 (keeps you at £80k profit even in the Min GDV scenario if refurb is Medium and the exit drifts to 9 months).
- Absolute walk-away cap (capital protection rule): £297,263 (approximate break-even cap under Min GDV, Maximum refurb, 12 months exit). Above this level, the downside case turns negative.
- Hard Stop Rule: Do not bid above your hard stop cap, even if the room heats up.
- Confirm buyer/admin fees and any seller special-condition charges in the auction pack.
- Confirm your deposit funds, ID, and AML documents are ready for auction day.
- Re-check guide/starting price and any addendum updates on the morning of the auction.
- Have your exit plan ready: flip buyer profile, or refinance terms and surveyor reality check.
Refurb stress tests (three levels)
| Stress test | Budget | Typical scope signal |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum | £40,000 | Cosmetic plus targeted upgrades, no major layout change. |
| Medium | £60,000 | Full modernisation: kitchen, bathroom, floors, electrics review, decorating, contingencies. |
| Maximum | £90,000 | Heavier works risk: roof, damp, structural, rewires, heating, bigger surprises, higher contingency. |
Simple deal summary (spreadsheet style): returns vs purchase price and refurb
| Purchase price | Net flip profit at £40k refurb | Net flip profit at £60k refurb | Net flip profit at £90k refurb |
|---|---|---|---|
| £260,000 | £151,693 | £131,693 | £101,693 |
| £275,000 | £132,670 | £112,670 | £82,670 |
| £290,000 | £113,469 | £93,469 | £63,469 |
| £305,000 | £94,089 | £74,089 | £44,089 |
| £320,000 | £74,528 | £54,528 | £24,528 |
Buy-to-let analysis (income and stress test)
Similar size and rooms listed for let: Priory Road, Chessington at £2,195 pcm.
| Purchase price (example) | Annual net cashflow at 5.5% | Annual net cashflow at 6.5% | Annual net cashflow at 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| £275,000 | £9,126 | £7,063 | £5,001 |
| £302,360 | £7,997 | £5,729 | £3,462 |
| £325,000 | £7,063 | £4,626 | £2,188 |
BRRR analysis (buy, refurb, refinance, rent)
| Illustrative BRRR input | Example figure |
|---|---|
| Purchase (example) | £275,000 |
| Refurb (example) | £60,000 |
| Target refinance value (ARV) | £500,000 (Mid GDV scenario) |
| Illustrative refinance LTV | 75% |
| Illustrative refinance loan | £375,000 |
Flip vs BTL: quick comparison
| Angle | What you are optimising | What can break the deal | Best fit here (based on evidence available) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flip | One-off profit and speed | Overrun on refurb or timeline, down-valuation on resale, hidden legal pack costs | Strong if you can keep refurb close to Medium and exit within 6 to 9 months. |
| Buy-to-let | Monthly cashflow resilience | Mortgageability, rate stress, licensing or planning friction, condition issues | Viable on the rent evidence, but confirm lender appetite post-refurb. |
| BRRR | Capital recycling plus cashflow | Down-valuation, surveyor conservatism, unmortgageable condition or legal constraints | Works best if ARV lands nearer the Mid or Max scenario and property is clean for standard BTL lending. |
Legal pack section
“Kill test” legal pack checklist (fast red-flag scan)
| Document | Kill test: what must be clean | What to do if not clean |
|---|---|---|
| Special Conditions of Sale | No unexpected seller charges, completion traps, penalty interest clauses beyond normal, or restrictive obligations. | Price in the cost, shorten your cap, or walk away if open-ended liabilities exist. |
| Title register and plan | Access rights, boundaries, restrictive covenants, and any charges are understood and acceptable. | Solicitor to confirm enforceability and risk. Walk away if access or title is compromised. |
| Searches (local, water, environmental) | No severe planning enforcement risk, contamination flags, flood risk surprises, or adoption/access issues. | Get specialist advice and adjust refurb and exit assumptions. |
| TA forms / replies (if provided) | No known disputes, structural movement history, or undisclosed works issues. | Survey and contractor inspection before bidding. |
| EPC and compliance | Any EPC gap is budgeted and does not block refinance strategy. | Budget upgrades and confirm lender minimum EPC stance. |
Risks table (from attached documents)
| Document name | Risk type to check | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special Conditions of Sale | Extra fees, third-party costs, completion timing constraints, indemnity costs | Can reduce profit materially or create completion risk | Re-price cap, confirm with solicitor, avoid if open-ended |
| Official Copies (Title) | Restrictive covenants, rights of way, boundary anomalies | Blocks extension plans or complicates resale | Solicitor confirmation before bidding |
| Local Authority Search | Enforcement, road adoption, planning history flags | Can block development assumptions | Check planning portal and solicitor advice |
| Environmental Search | Contamination, landfill proximity, flood indicators | Down-valuation risk and buyer fear on resale | Specialist reports if flagged |
| Water and Drainage Search | Build-over constraints, sewer locations | Can constrain rear extensions | Design around, seek build-over agreements |
Verdict (auto-matched to the scenario)
If the auction price stays near £275,000, the flip can still work strongly on Mid and Max GDV cases, and can hit £80k+ only if refurb stays tighter and timelines do not drift under the Min GDV case.
Use the caps: Hard stop £260,076 if you want £80k profit even in the conservative case, and treat £297,263 as an absolute downside walk-away threshold under a harsh stress test.
The deal is attractive at or near the starting bid if you can control refurb and exit within 6 to 9 months, but your maximum bid should be governed by the GDV case you believe is achievable and the legal pack constraints that can quietly destroy the margin.
Decision support only, not legal/financial advice. View the property and make sure that you are satisfied structurally before bidding. Always have your solicitor confirm covenants, auction conditions, and any special conditions before bidding.
Investment Financials
Detailed figures supplied by the deal source. Use these figures as a starting point for your own investment analysis.
Acquisition & Project Costs
Projected Outcome
Financial information is supplied by the listing source and may not include all purchase, finance, tax, legal, holding, refurbishment or disposal costs. Investors should independently verify all figures and assumptions before proceeding.
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Property investment opportunities listed on UncommonDeal are provided by independent deal sources, advertisers and other third-party property professionals. Unless expressly stated otherwise, UncommonDeal does not independently verify every detail, financial figure or investment assumption contained within a listing.
Before making any investment decision, you should carry out your own independent due diligence and verify all relevant information, including the property condition, purchase price, comparable values, rental estimates, refurbishment costs, planning matters, legal title, financing assumptions, taxes, fees and projected returns.
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